Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets

Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity markets

Numerous factors have been proposed in the literature as explaining the recent commodity price movements. In this paper we focus on one of the most widely discussed factors, the impact of speculative bubbles. We investigate whether commodity prices during the spike of 2007–2008 might have deviated from their intrinsic values based on market fundamentals. To do this, we use a bootstrap methodolo...

Correlations in Commodity Markets

In this paper we analyzed cross-correlations in commodity markets investigating correlations of future contracts for commodities over the period 1998.09.01 2007.12.14. We constructed a minimal spanning tree based on the correlation matrix. The tree provides evidence for sector clusterization of investigated contracts. We also studied dynamic properties of correlations. It turned out that the ma...

Bubbles in Real Estate Markets

Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach

We develop a new multivariate generalized ARCH (GARCH) parameterization suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varyin...

Imperfect Markets and Commodity Prices Under Demand Pull

This paper presents a theoretical view of imperfect market. It concludes that an increase in the price of products does not give any incentive to increasing production which shows the mechanism for upward trends in prices.